Orange Juice

I took a look at Orange Juice today to see how the Hurricane is impacting the markets.  In the short-term, it is overbought but I wouldn't take a position because I have no idea what's gonna happen.  Longer-term, you can see that over the last forty years there were five times that it traded up to around the $200 level.  Each time was a major selling opportunity.  It is basic supply and demand dynamics. When prices get that high, farmers are motivated to grow more oranges and the increased supply drives prices lower.

If it does trade up to that level over the next few weeks or months, I'll be watching it for a potential short trade.  I wouldn't go short when it gets to $200.  I would wait for the $200 level to break to the downside.  This would mean that a new downtrend has potentially started.

JO1 Comdty (Generic 1st 'JO' Fut 2017-09-08 18-23-18.jpg
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