Technical Tactical Trading Ideas Update.

These were published on June 22nd, and on July 12th.  

Out of the ten trades, only one lost money.  One hasn't been initiated yet.  The other eight were profitable, and the short in Wheat worked out very well.  The trade in Kellogg was nice too. Here they are...not in and particular order other than have Wheat be first.

 

TRADE ONE - WHEAT

Here is what I wrote about Wheat on July 12th:

Wheat from July 12th – There may be a low risk short trade in Wheat.  It went parabolic after breaking resistance at the important $450 level.  It is currently very overbought.  Since late 2013 it has traded up with this type of action on four separate occasions.  Each time was followed by a significant selloff.  It is possible that it refills the levels that it gapped up through and trades all the way back down to around the $460 level.

 

Here is Wheat today.  I went short at $523 on July 12th and I covered it at $460 on August 3rd.  I wasn't stopped out because the downtrend line was never broken.  That's about a 12% gain in about three weeks.

 

 

TRADE TWO - OIL

Here is what I wrote about Oil on June 22nd:

Oil from June 22nd - Oil is testing support around the $43 level but it is still in a downtrend.  There is support around this level because it was the low in September and November, and then again on May 5th when the low was $43.76.  All three times were followed by a significant rally so it may rally again.  The key to a successful long trade here is to wait until the downtrend line is broken. Too many investors try to catch the bottom, but the risk reward ratio is better if entry occurs once an uptrend has begun.

 

I closed this Oil trade out at the very end of June.  Here is what was on the BLOG on June 30th:

June 30th - As you probably know, I was looking for support in Oil around the $43 level because that was the low in September and November.   Sure enough between June 20th and June 26th that's where it found a bottom and turned.  I waited until the downtrend was broken before entering my trade.  I bought it on the way up and entered my position at the $44 level on June 27th.

Now there is some resistance around the $45.50 level because this level was support from June 7th through June 13th.  Yesterday' high trade was $45.65 and the high trade so far today is $45.41.  So I closed out of my position this morning at the $45.30 level.

Low risk trades can be found if you understand the supply and demand dynamics that are occurring in the market.  This is a much more effective and profitable methodology than listening to the Financial News.

 

TRADE THREE - SMALL CAP VALUE

Here is what I wrote about the Russell 2000 Value ETF on June 22nd.  The trade has not been initiated because the relevant levels have not been reached yet.

Russell 2000 Value from June 22nd - The IWNs have been trading in a range with resistance around the $122 level and support around $113.50 since December.  These are clearly defined level.  An obvious and potential low risk trade here is to go short if it looks like they are going to sell off of the $122 level again, and to go long if they rebound off of the $113.50 level again.  If these levels are broken, then the other side of the trade could be entered.  In other words, if $122 is broken to the upside be long, and if $113.50 is broken to the downside be short.

 

TRADES FOUR AND FIVE - S&P 500 RETAIL ETF

There have been two profitable trades in the XRTs.  The have essentially occurred due to the same dynamics.  First is what I wrote on June 22nd, and second is what I wrote on July 12th.  Notice how similar they are.  They only difference is that in the July post, I mention how once again they found support around the same important support level recently at the end of June.

June 22nd - S&P SPDR Retail ETF - The XRTs are oversold and trading at levels that have been support in the past but they are still in a downtrend.  The last time that they traded around $38 was in early 2016 and the time before that was in February of 2014.  Each time was followed by a significant rally.  Again...the key to a successful long trade here is to wait until the downtrend line is broken. Too many investors try to catch the bottom, but the risk reward ratio is better if entry occurs once an uptrend has begun.

July 12th - S&P SPDR Retail ETF - The XRTs are oversold and trading at levels that have been support in the past, but they are still in a downtrend.  They traded around $38 in early 2016 and in February of 2014.  Each time was followed by a significant rally.  They also bounced off of this level in June.   Again...the key to a successful long trade here is to wait until the downtrend line is broken.  Too many investors try to catch the bottom, but the risk reward ratio is better if entry occurs once an uptrend has begun.

Here are the charts that were on the Blog on June 22nd..

 

Here is the chart that was on the Blog on July 12th.

 

Here is a current view of the XRTs.  I went long at $40 on June 26th when the downtrend line was broken.  I was stopped out at $40.70 on July 6th when my trailing stop was hit.  I went long again at $39.50 on July 13th when the downtrend line was broken.  I was stopped out at $40.16 when my trailing stop was hit again.  I am now out of the name.  It wasn't a large profit by any means, but it was low risk and I'd go long again if the same setup occurs...meaning if it rebounds off of the $39 level again and breaks a downtrend line.

 

TRADE SIX - NASDAQ BIOTECH

Here is what I wrote about the IBBs on June 22nd:

NASDAQ Biotech from June 22nd - The IBBs have gone parabolic after breaking resistance at the $300 level.  This level was clearly defined resistance last September, August, March, and again in May.  This level will probably become important support if there is some profit taking.  The IBBs are now overbought and there may be a low risk short trade here.  If tomorrows close is lower than today’s low it will probably mean that the trend has changed and that could signal a trade entry.

 

Here is the current view of the IBBs.  I was stopped out just above breakeven.  I went short on June 27th around $319.  I got stopped out and covered it the next day around $317.  I thought that it was going to reverse similar to the dynamics in Wheat, but I was wrong so I was content to get out with a small profit instead of a loss.

 

TRADE SEVEN - ALERIAN MLP

Here is what I said about AMLP on July 11th. You can see from the chart, which is from today, that I was wrong and was stopped out at a small loss.  If it goes lower and trades down to around the $11 level again, I'll be watching for a long trade if it breaks a downtrend line.

Alerian MLP ETF from July 11th - AMLP is testing resistance around the $12 level.  This level has been important going back to August of 2015.  If it breaks through this level there could be a nice move upwards.  A possible long strategy would be to use a buy stop and buy it above $12.  I’d place my buy stop around the $12.10 level with my target at $12.50 and my sell stop at $11.95.  $12 will probably become a support level once again it this happened.

 

TRADE EIGHT - KELLOGG

Here is what I said about Kellogg on July 11th:

Kellogg from July 11th - K has been in a freefall since breaking support around the $70 level last month.  There was support around this level because it was resistance in June of 2014, January of 2015, and August of 2015.  Then it was support in January of 2016, and again earlier this year in May.  It is now trading around the $65 level and there will probably be support here because it was the lows in the fall of 2015.  It is oversold and will most likely bounce.  A possible strategy would be to go long if it rallies off of the $65 level, and breaks the downtrend line.  The sell target would be $70, and the stop-out would be $65.

 

Here is how K looks today.  Just like the trade in Wheat, it worked out as expected.  I went long on July 13th at $66.  I bought it then because the downtrend line was broken.  There was some good news on it yesterday and it traded up to my long-term price target of $70, so I was happy to sell it and walk away with a nice profit.  It's a Six Percent profit in three weeks.

 

 

TRADE NINE - FLOWERS

Here is what I said about FLO on July 11th:

Flowers from July 11th - FLO has been trending lower since the middle of May and it is approaching levels where it may find support.  $16.50 was the top of the range last November before there was a huge move upwards, so it may be a support level now.  The key to a successful long trade here is to wait until the downtrend line is broken.  Too many investors try to catch the bottom, but the risk reward ratio is better if entry occurs once an uptrend has begun.  My sell price would be $18.50 and my stop out would be $16.50.

 

Here is how FLO looks today.  Once again I made a small, but low risk profit.  I bought it at $17.55 when it broke the downtrend line, and I sold it when it hit $18.  I know my long-term price target was $18.50, but when it got to $18 it was overbought so I pulled the trigger.

 

TRADE TEN - BOOZE ALLEN HAMILTON

Here is what I said about BAH on June 22nd:

Booz Allen Hamilton Corp from June 22nd – BAH found support around the $32 level after its recent selloff.  There is support around these levels because they were important resistance for almost two years.  They were resistance in January and again in December of 2015, and again in July and September of 2016.  If you believe that the fundamentals and future prospects of this company are good, this is probably a good time to buy it.

 

Here is how BAH looks today.  I bought it around $32 when it looked like support there would hold. Then when it rallied to $34 I sold it.  There was resistance there because it was support in February.