Healthcare Long-Term

The Long-term dynamics in the Health Care Sector are very interesting.  I love it when the market could be telling us something about what is going on in politics, and that could be the case here.

The XLVs began a sustained long-term rally when President Obama took office.  One could argue that this is due to the large profits that Healthcare companies made as a result of 'Obamacare'.  Now President Elect Trump says that he wants to repeal it. 

As these macro political forces evolve, the XLVs could be making a multi-year reversal pattern. This is Bearish for this sector and would suggest that Trumps repeal would in fact send the Sector lower. 

The well-defined uptrend that began in 2011 was broken in August of 2015.  Then in August of 2016 they turned over at a lower top and have been trending lower since then.  This has formed what Technicians traditionally call a 'double top'. 

If support around the $64 level breaks there could be a large move lower because there are no clearly defined support levels until it gets significantly lower.  $64 was support in September of 2015 and in early 2016.