World Chess Championship 2018

Game 1: Caruana–Carlsen, ½–½

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Game 1 was a 115-move draw, lasting 7 hours. It was the third longest game in a world championship, after Game 5 of the 1978 championship and Game 7 of the 2014 championship, which lasted 124 and 122 moves, respectively. Caruana opened with 1.e4, and Carlsen responded with the Sicilian Defence, with Caruana pushing in the Rossolimo Variation (an opening that he'd lost using against Carlsen in 2015. After 15 moves, it was clear that Carlsen had won the opening duel, with White having no clear way to improve his position while Black still had plans. Caruana started to consume a lot of time, but failed to neutralize Carlsen, with the result that Carlsen had a strong position after 30 moves and Caruana was in serious time trouble. Despite the significant time advantage, Carlsen played a number of inaccurate moves between moves 34 and 40, and after 40...Bxc3? Caruana was able to reach a drawn endgame. Carlsen continued to play for a win but Caruana was able to hold the game, despite being a pawn down in a rook and pawns versus rook and pawns endgame. The game lasted for seven hours before the players agreed to a draw.

This was the second game in a row between the two (the previous in the Sinquefield Cup in August) where Carlsen had a winning position but was unable to deliver the knockout blow and allowed Caruana to survive.

1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 g6 4. Bxc6 dxc6 5. d3 Bg7 6. h3 Nf6 7. Nc3 Nd7 8. Be3 e5 9. 0-0 b6 10. Nh2 Nf8 11. f4 exf4 12. Rxf4 Be6 13. Rf2 h6 14. Qd2 g5 15. Raf1 Qd6 16. Ng4 0-0-0 17. Nf6 Nd7 18. Nh5 Be5 19. g4 f6 20. b3 Bf7 21. Nd1 Nf8 22. Nxf6 Ne6 23. Nh5 Bxh5 24. gxh5 Nf4 25. Bxf4 gxf4 26. Rg2 Rhg8 27. Qe2 Rxg2+ 28. Qxg2 Qe6 29. Nf2 Rg8 30. Ng4 Qe8 31. Qf3 Qxh5 32. Kf2 Bc7 33. Ke2 Qg5 34. Nh2 (diagram) h5 35. Rf2 Qg1 36. Nf1 h4 37. Kd2 Kb7 38. c3 Be5 39. Kc2 Qg7 40. Nh2 Bxc3 41. Qxf4 Bd4 42. Qf7+ Ka6 43. Qxg7 Rxg7 44. Re2 Rg3 45. Ng4 Rxh3 46. e5 Rf3 47. e6 Rf8 48. e7 Re8 49. Nh6 h3 50. Nf5 Bf6 51. a3 b5 52. b4 cxb4 53. axb4 Bxe7 54. Nxe7 h2 55. Rxh2 Rxe7 56. Rh6 Kb6 57. Kc3 Rd7 58. Rg6 Kc7 59. Rh6 Rd6 60. Rh8 Rg6 61. Ra8 Kb7 62. Rh8 Rg5 63. Rh7+ Kb6 64. Rh6 Rg1 65. Kc2 Rf1 66. Rg6 Rh1 67. Rf6 Rh8 68. Kc3 Ra8 69. d4 Rd8 70. Rh6 Rd7 71. Rg6 Kc7 72. Rg5 Rd6 73. Rg8 Rh6 74. Ra8 Rh3+ 75. Kc2 Ra3 76. Kb2 Ra4 77. Kc3 a6 78. Rh8 Ra3+ 79. Kb2 Rg3 80. Kc2 Rg5 81. Rh6 Rd5 82. Kc3 Rd6 83. Rh8 Rg6 84. Kc2 Kb7 85. Kc3 Rg3+ 86. Kc2 Rg1 87. Rh5 Rg2+ 88. Kc3 Rg3+ 89. Kc2 Rg4 90. Kc3 Kb6 91. Rh6 Rg5 92. Rf6 Rh5 93. Rg6 Rh3+ 94. Kc2 Rh5 95. Kc3 Rd5 96. Rh6 Kc7 97. Rh7+ Rd7 98. Rh5 Rd6 99. Rh8 Rg6 100. Rf8 Rg3+ 101. Kc2 Ra3 102. Rf7+ Kd6 103. Ra7 Kd5 104. Kb2 Rd3 105. Rxa6 Rxd4 106. Kb3 Re4 107. Kc3 Rc4+ 108. Kb3 Kd4 109. Rb6 Kd3 110. Ra6 Rc2 111. Rb6 Rc3+ 112. Kb2 Rc4 113. Kb3 Kd4 114. Ra6 Kd5 115. Ra8 ½–½

SPY - Range-bound for now...

It is important to watch the $270 level.  It has been support over the past week.  There is support there because it is where the lows were in May and June.  It will probably continue to be support in the short-term. 

There will probably be resistance around the $280 level.  This level was resistance in February, March, June and last month, and it was support in July. 

I am going to be neutral and on the sidelines until one of these levels breaks.

Cannabis Crash / Marijuana Meltdown

I was extremely confident that the Cannabis stocks were going to selloff after becoming legal in Canada. It was a classic case of ‘buy on the rumor, sell on the news.’ They did in fact sell off, and the selloff was bigger than I thought it would be.

Here is HMLSF…the Horizons Marijuana Life Science Index ETF. Last month it hit resistance right at the $20 level. This wasn’t surprising because that is where the highs were back in January. After selling off it spent a few days consolidating around $15 before it broke support. There was support at $15 because it was resistance from February through July. It will now probably become a resistance level again. It is oversold now, and may find support around the $11.40 level. This is where the lows were in April and August.

Could be close to a bottom here...

S&P 500 – The SPYs broke support at the $270 level. This level has been resistance over the past two days and will probably continue to be resistance in the short-term. If they head lower, there should be support around the $260 level because it is where the lows were from February through May. Remember that bottoms are always more volatile than tops. That’s because selling is driven by fear and buying is driven by hope. They are oversold and have had huge volume trading, so they are probably close to the end of the recent selloff. 

SPYs

You can see here how the $270 level was support today. The low trade was $268.61. There is support at that level because it is where the lows were in May and June, and it is where the low trade was on October 11th.. They rallied after becoming oversold but they are still in a downtrend.. I will continue to watch the $270 and $280 levels for support and resistance in the near-term.